WHO’S UP, WHO’S DOWN – Forecasting is not an exact science, but interesting nevertheless:

The 2018 World Economic League Table, released today, projects that Australia will jump two spots to become the 11th largest economy on the globe by 2025.

The report, published by the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), attributes much of the growth to high immigration levels boosting the population…

One of the report’s key findings is that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy by 2030…

By 2032, three out of the world’s four largest economies will be Asian — China, India and Japan — while South Korea and Indonesia will enter the top 10 for the first time.

India will overtake Britain and France to become the world’s fifth largest economy next year and will become the world’s third largest by 2032.

The huge economic changes will have huge political and social consequences for everyone around the world. Nevertheless, for all the talk of China’s rise to number one and superpowerdom, I don’t think this is going to be necessarily smooth or even inevitable. China’s communist-capitalist rulers have papered over a lot of cracks on the way up. They have been relatively lucky so far, carried forward by the momentum, but problems, like the rotten banking system, are not going to magically disappear.

Also this, later in the same story:

Researchers had a gloomy outlook for world trade in 2017 after Britain voted to pull out of the European Union and Donald Trump was swept to power with a protectionist mandate.

But their fears have not been realised.

According to Netherlands Central Planning Bureau data, world trade grew by 5 per cent in 2017, which is about equal to the growth in the past three years combined.

The report found that the US President’s “America first” policies would not impede growth too drastically and that his tax reforms would boost the US economy.

It also found that Brexit would have less of an impact on the UK economy than initially feared, thanks to robust tech and creative sectors. The UK is projected to bounce back and overtake France in 2020.

“The failure of Donald Trump to follow through on much of his protectionist agenda and the willingness of the UK to do a trade deal with the EU mean that the death of world trade through protectionism is greatly exaggerated,” the report states.

The researchers project that 3D printing will lead to less trade across borders, and that information technology services will fill the gap.

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