Five brave predictions for post-midterms


While I’ll sleep the sleep of the innocent, the America, or about half of it, probably a bit more than usual this time, will vote in the most important election since the previous most important election (two years ago). The outcome most likely remains the Republicans holding on to the Senate and the Democrats taking the House; historically not an unusual scenario considering the party in the White House tends to suffer a swing against halfway through the term. Whether it’s going to be a “Red wave” or not no one really knows; the polling for the past few months have favoured the Dems, though the margin varied significantly over time. Whatever the exact result tomorrow (my time), I think I can safely make the following five predictions for the United States in the next two years:

Whether they win or lose, the Democrats will be getting even more extreme and unhinged – either drunk on new power (Impeach!) or drunk from being again denied it.

Political polarisation will continue – and likely get worse. “Bipartisanship” is commonly understood as Republicans shutting up and rolling over to support the Democrat agenda. You’re not going to be seeing any of that. The stakes are too high, the temperature near boiling, and common ground less palatable, particularly as the Dems drift further to the left and the GOP rallies behind Trump. Depending where you sit on the spectrum, you can’t compromise with evil and you can’t compromise with madness.

There will be more violence – and worse violence.

The economy will continue to improve – at least until the next stock market crash. But don’t expect the good economic news to significantly affect the voting landscape; the general malaise is too strong.

And don’t expect much of the Republican agenda to get enacted either – even if the GOP performs better than expected. Never mind lower spending and lower deficit for example, even the Wall won’t be built by the next Presidential election.

OK, I lied; make that six (“if you like your five predictions, you can keep your five predictions”):

Trump won’t turn into Hitler – and the US is not Weimar that will become the new Third Reich. Neither will there be a second Civil War. People are trying to draw comparisons with completely different societies, with different history, in different circumstances and under different conditions. Please stop being so damned dramatic.

OK, OK, I’ll stop now, after this:

There still won’t be Russian collusion – you can bet your ass that if Mueller was sitting on anything significant we would have had an “October Surprise”. Expect the narrative to shift in yet another direction come 2019.

(The top photo: MSNBC announces election result the day before)