Who’s the Boss?

springsteen

Always enjoyed the music, always disagreed with politics – and now also have to disagree with his political prognosticating:

Bruce Springsteen believes that President Donald Trump will win a second term in the White House.

‘I don’t see anyone out there at the moment… the man who can beat Trump, or the woman who can beat Trump,’ the rocker told The Sunday Times Magazine.

Springsteen, who is a long-standing Democrat himself, said the political party doesn’t ‘have an obvious, effective presidential candidate’ who can ‘speak the same language’ as Trump.

These are just gut feelings and not based on any confidential information from political insiders or access to secret polling, but:

1) I don’t think Trump will run for re-election. Not because he will get impeached by the Democrats or because he will have to resign in disgrace having been shown by Mueller to have colluded with Russia (neither will happen). I think he will just get bored (or “tired of winning”). By 2020, Trump will be 74, and though seemingly in pretty good health and fitness for his age – and for his crap diet and lack of exercise – he might prefer to spend the rest of his golden years at a more leisurely pace. The next two years will be even more frustrating when dealing with the Congress (not that when it was in the Republican hands it was exactly a breeze) and one can’t dine on foreign policy achievements alone, however one defines them.

2) If I’m wrong (which is quite possible) and Trump decides to run again, I think he is extremely vulnerable and would lose to just about any Democrat with the possible exception of Hillary Clinton. He might be slightly more popular among the public since getting first elected, but nowhere near enough to put him in a potentially winning position. Trump might be getting some converts among white women, blue collar men and minorities but at an insufficient rate to match the growth of the coalition mounting against him. Demographics are working against any Republican, with the continuing migration and procreation, particularly in the Latino community. But it’s working even more against somebody like Trump who makes it so easy to demonise him. I believe that in 2020, the Democrats will not only have a bigger base than the Republicans but will also find it much easier to expand beyond to gather votes of the independents, swinging voters and occasional voters.

Born Not To Run Again or Barred In The USA? In 2020 we’ll all have a 2020 vision.

Comments

comments