2000 – a few early take-aways

2000

1. Democrats, buoyed by the media and the public research industry support chorus, were expecting a Blue Wave. A lot of Republicans, buoyed by the enthusiasm of the base as shown at the Trump rallies, were contrarily and counter-intuitively hopeful of a Red Wave. Both sides were wrong. And both sides were right. What we have seen is a Blue Wave crushing against a counter Red Wave. The status quo – probably in the White House, almost certainly in the Senate, most likely in the House of Representatives – has been preserved; the country continues quite polarised and split.

2. This has been perhaps the biggest democratic exercise in American history – and that’s something to be happy about. That’s single-handedly Donald Trump’s achievement, being the greatest voter motivator both for and against himself. Early figures suggest over 160 million Americans voted, or two-thirds of eligible voters. This is a massive increase on the 55% average in the past few decades, and translates to 25-30 million more people casting ballots this year than in 2016 (some 103 million votes cast before the election day and nearly 60 million today). A turnout of around 67% is the highest since the beginning of the 20th century. Presidential elections in the 19th century had higher turnouts of eligible voters, but it has to be remembered that the electorate then was much smaller, excluding women and de jure or de facto black Americans.

3. The United States has to do better about the logistics and mechanics of federal elections. States should be able to set their rules for statewide and local polls but there should be a lot more uniformity across the board nationwide. Otherwise each vote is not equal. Veracity of the vote should be beyond approach. The fact that the five Democrat-controlled states where Trump is leading the vote are playing silly games with the count is an indictment of the system. If you don’t want people suspecting that you’re stopping the count to give yourself time to magically find boxes of Biden votes behind the cupboard at a polling station, don’t behave as you are doing exactly that.

4.The polling industry – Trafalgar excepted – once again has completely beclowned itself.

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Never mind the national vote but state-wide polls by and large were also embarrassingly wrong, often by massive margins.

5. Donald Trump has done something that no Republican has done for a long while – he is actively expanding the Republican base, making the party more blue collar and more ethnic, which it needs to do to stay in the game. This is why Democrats are panicking: they know that demography is destiny and have been planning for a permanent electoral majority depending on the growing non-white vote. Trump has been raining on that parade. In fact, ironically, the only group where the President went back on his 2016 are white males:

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That this is being achieved by the supposedly “most racist president in American history” (according to Biden) and an arch-white nationalist and bigot, should – but it won’t – put end to the absurd rhetoric. By the way, God bless Trump for motivating more blacks, Latinos and Asians to switch their allegiance and share in the right’s vision for America.

6. That Trump is still in the race despite the COVIDocalpse and despite the 4 years of rabid opposition by all the major institutions in the American society, from the mainstream media to the bureaucracy is as near a political miracle as is imaginable. The left has thrown everything at him, including a never ending succession of fake scandals, yet here we (still) are.

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